MEDIA CONTACT: Denise Nordell, (209) 667-3916, dnordell@csustan.edu
CSU Stanislaus business economics Professor Gökçe Soydemir projects that the San Joaquin Valley economy will perform at more accelerated rates in 2013 and 2014 than in previous years.
In his second annual Business Forecast Report, presented today to area business owners and community leaders, Soydemir cited two main reasons for his positive projection: employment growth well above that of previous years; and higher expectations among both consumers and business owners, as evidenced by consumer confidence and new manufacturing orders.
Soydemir highlighted several aspects of his findings:
• San Joaquin Valley employment grew by an annual percentage rate of 2.08 in the first eight months of 2012. All counties except Madera posted job growth, and growth was seen in all employment categories except government.
• In 2012, California was second in the U.S. in job growth after Texas. Soydemir predicts the “natural rate” of unemployment — 12 percent for the Valley and 6 percent for the nation — will be reached by early 2014.
• For the first time since the recessionary period of 2007-2009, the average sales price of new single-family houses is projected to increase in 2013. Foreclosures will continue to decrease.
• Most notably, the Valley economy began to show slowly strengthening performance. Following a well-defined housing market turning point in the past year, builders have slowly begun constructing new dwellings.
The Business Forecast Report, which is available free at http://www.csustan.edu/sjvbfr, provides projections for the San Joaquin Valley labor market; regional housing conditions; prices and inflation; and depositary institutions and capital markets. Soydemir and his team use a unique forecasting model that produces lower and upper statistical confidence bands; actual results are expected to fall within this range. Soydemir looks for data that signal “turning points” and offer clues to future performance.
Soydemir cautions that several simultaneously occurring potential developments — including economic slowdown in Brazil, Russia, India and China and worsening debt problems in the European Union — are not yet reflected in the incoming data and may derail his projections. To date, the business forecast reports have proven to about 94 percent accurate, providing a highly reliable forecasting tool for business owners and decision makers.
CSU Stanislaus business economics Professor Gökçe Soydemir projects that the San Joaquin Valley economy will perform at more accelerated rates in 2013 and 2014 than in previous years.
In his second annual Business Forecast Report, presented today to area business owners and community leaders, Soydemir cited two main reasons for his positive projection: employment growth well above that of previous years; and higher expectations among both consumers and business owners, as evidenced by consumer confidence and new manufacturing orders.
Soydemir highlighted several aspects of his findings:
• San Joaquin Valley employment grew by an annual percentage rate of 2.08 in the first eight months of 2012. All counties except Madera posted job growth, and growth was seen in all employment categories except government.
• In 2012, California was second in the U.S. in job growth after Texas. Soydemir predicts the “natural rate” of unemployment — 12 percent for the Valley and 6 percent for the nation — will be reached by early 2014.
• For the first time since the recessionary period of 2007-2009, the average sales price of new single-family houses is projected to increase in 2013. Foreclosures will continue to decrease.
• Most notably, the Valley economy began to show slowly strengthening performance. Following a well-defined housing market turning point in the past year, builders have slowly begun constructing new dwellings.
The Business Forecast Report, which is available free at http://www.csustan.edu/sjvbfr, provides projections for the San Joaquin Valley labor market; regional housing conditions; prices and inflation; and depositary institutions and capital markets. Soydemir and his team use a unique forecasting model that produces lower and upper statistical confidence bands; actual results are expected to fall within this range. Soydemir looks for data that signal “turning points” and offer clues to future performance.
Soydemir cautions that several simultaneously occurring potential developments — including economic slowdown in Brazil, Russia, India and China and worsening debt problems in the European Union — are not yet reflected in the incoming data and may derail his projections. To date, the business forecast reports have proven to about 94 percent accurate, providing a highly reliable forecasting tool for business owners and decision makers.