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Business Economist Predicts Accelerated Growth for Valley Economy Over the Next Two Years

CSU Stanislaus business economics Professor Gökçe Soydemir projects that the San Joaquin Valley economy will continue to improve in 2013 and 2014, and will do so at faster rates than in previous years. In his second annual Business Forecast Report (download the report free), Soydemir cited two main reasons for his positive projection: employment growth well above that of previous years, and a more positive outlook among both consumers and business owners, as evidenced by consumer confidence and new manufacturing orders.

Soydemir highlighted several aspects of his findings:

• San Joaquin Valley employment grew by an annual rate of two percent in the first eight months of 2012. All counties except Madera posted job growth, and growth was seen in all employment categories except government.
• In 2012, California was second in the U.S. in job growth after Texas. Soydemir predicts the “natural rate” of unemployment — 12 percent for the Valley and six percent for the nation — will be reached by early 2014.
• For the first time since the recessionary period of 2007-2009, the average sales price of new single-family houses is projected to increase in 2013. Foreclosures will continue to decrease.

The Business Forecast Report provides projections for the San Joaquin Valley labor market; regional housing conditions; prices and inflation; and banks and capital markets.